The world must learn from Japan’s demographic time bomb

August 8, 2025

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Stark new evidence has revealed yet again this week that Japan’s efforts to reverse a demographic time bomb are failing.

Population decline in a nation that is home to the oldest population in the world bar the tiny state of Monaco, where adult incontinence pads vastly outsell nappies, shows no sign of slowing. On the contrary, according to new data from the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, deaths in Japan outnumbered births by 900,000 last year, the largest population fall on record.

Recorded births have plummeted by over two thirds since their post-war peak and, over the next 50 years, Japan is projected to shrink by an equivalent of the entire population of Malaysia.

This failure to reverse the trend of plummeting birth rates is not for want of trying.

“Our nation is on the cusp of whether it can continue to function as a society”, warned Fumio Kishida, Japan’s then-Prime Minister, in January 2023, amid growing fears that a shrinking youthful population would cause acute labour shortages, further stifle economic growth and leave the elderly with no-one to care for them.

Kishida’s warning has since been followed by renewed government efforts to slow the demographic trend – ranging from even more generous subsidies for families to quirkier recent policies such as Tokyo’s introduction of a four-day working week to give couples more time to procreate.

But, as we are seeing in Japan and across much of the rest of the world, once a low birth rate sets in, it’s a very difficult pattern to reverse.

Britain too is contending with a shrinking future workforce and soaring pension and care costs as the post-war baby boom generation grows old. The number of babies being born in England has reached its lowest levels since the 1970s while the number of people aged over 85 is projected to double by 2047.

The causes of a baby bust – be that in Britain, Italy, Japan, China or elsewhere – appear to be broadly similar: increased urbanisation, concerns about the rising cost of living and better economic opportunities for women all play a part.

There are culturally specific factors too that perpetuate the trend in certain countries. In Japan, a punishing work culture as well as traditional domestic gender roles – which place considerable pressure on women to take on the bulk of child-rearing responsibilities – are also cited as factors that discourage family-building.

If an ageing population is such a difficult trend to slow or reverse, then the emphasis should perhaps be on finding ways for societies to cope with this new demographic reality.

In Japan – despite its historical pre-occupation with preserving “ethnic homogeneity” – there appears to be a growing acceptance that its society cannot cope without some loosening of its traditionally strict immigration laws.

The number of foreign residents in Japan increased by more than 10 per cent last year to a record high of 3.6 million people, according to government data released this week. In the year 2000, migrants comprised 1.34 per cent of the Japanese population, today that figure is closer to 3 per cent and, within 20 years, it’s projected to rise to 10 per cent.

In the past, Japan’s foreign worker schemes, such as the TITP, sparked controversy for poor human rights oversight. Vietnam and Japan’s diplomatic relations were strained, for instance, in 2018 after a number of Vietnamese workers on the scheme were made to clear up nuclear contamination in Fukushima without proper protection. Yet Japan now finds itself under pressure to treat foreign workers better since it faces increasing competition in attracting foreign labour from neighbours such as South Korea, Taiwan and China who are grappling too with ageing societies.

Tokyo is also playing to its strengths by finding innovative technological solutions to care for an elderly population. “Carer robots” being developed include Sugano’s AIREC robot, which can help a patient sit up, put on socks, cook scrambled eggs and fold laundry.

While Japan’s demographic path is far from unique, it is years ahead of most other countries owing to its consistently low fertility rate since the 1970s.

This makes it a vital case study for other nations enduring similar challenges. Some demographers have even gone as far as to label it a “harbinger state”. Britain, and much of the world, will look to Japan in the coming years – and decades – as they too desperately seek sustainable solutions to managing an ageing population.

Caitlin Allen

Deputy Editor

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