The Egypt-Israel peace treaty, a longstanding pillar of Middle Eastern stability, has provided a crucial, if cold, peace between former adversaries. Yet, this stability is increasingly becoming an illusion.
Under President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi, Egypt faces profound internal fragilities — repression, economic precarity, and a militarized, porous Sinai — that undermine the security the treaty provides for Israel. For Israel, ignoring these vulnerabilities and clinging to the illusion of enduring peace would be a dangerous strategic miscalculation, demanding unwavering vigilance and a clear-eyed assessment of the evolving landscape.
Sisi’s government, in its second decade, maintains power through wholesale repression, systematically detaining and punishing peaceful critics and activists. Arbitrary detentions, forced disappearances, and torture are common. Peaceful dissent is criminalized, leading to prosecution and imprisonment. The rule of law has eroded; new laws grant the military sweeping authority and expand military court jurisdiction over civilians, weakening accountability. Political opposition is virtually nonexistent; challengers face systematic targeting and arrests. Civil liberties, including press freedom, are tightly restricted, with journalists frequently being held on unsubstantiated charges.
This reliance on force, not popular support, reveals fundamental weakness. Such a precarious regime is unpredictable; its survival instincts could trigger drastic internal actions or opportunistic foreign policy shifts. The stability of Israel’s southern border is thus tied to a brittle, repressive regime’s unpredictable internal dynamics.
The Egyptian Economy
Despite recent GDP growth and currency stabilization, Egypt faces a severe economic crisis. Prices are skyrocketing, poverty increasing, and access to basic necessities decreasing while reliance on foreign debt swells to unprecedented levels. The government prioritizes lavish, opaque infrastructure projects, often led by the military, which lack public scrutiny and transparency. Egypt remains highly vulnerable to external shocks: the Suez Canal, a critical artery and top source of foreign currency, saw a 23.1% decline due to Red Sea tensions and regional conflicts.
This economic fragility creates immense internal pressure, potentially leading to social unrest deflected by anti-Israel sentiment. Sisi’s threat to reconsider the peace agreement if the US withdraws financial support due to Egypt’s refusal to accept Palestinian refugees reveals the transactional nature of the treaty and the regime’s willingness to leverage it for economic survival.
The Sinai Peninsula is Egypt’s Achilles’ heel and a constant strategic concern for both Egypt and Israel. Its inhospitable topography, limited Bedouin loyalty, and pervasive smuggling make it difficult for Cairo to control. This was exposed by the decade-long ISIS insurgency of Wilayat Sinai. For Egyptian leadership, Gaza is a national security nightmare, breeding extremist ideology and facilitating jihadist infiltration and weapon smuggling into Sinai. Reports indicate Hamas’s weapons were smuggled through Egyptian territory, suggesting neglect or complicity.
This undermines the spirit of the demilitarization and security provisions in the Camp David Accords. Despite the 1979 peace treaty’s stipulations, Egypt has significantly increased its military presence — deploying tanks, building new airfields, and digging massive tunnels far beyond permitted limits. Israeli approvals are often retroactive because Cairo has already made them routine violations. This significant Egyptian military buildup, often violating treaty terms, creates a new reality where Israel’s border is increasingly militarized.
Israeli Awareness Is Vital
Despite robust operational security cooperation against ISIS in Sinai, most of Egypt’s military leaders view Israel with deep suspicion. This stems from historical wars and ingrained anti-Israel narratives, often with antisemitic rhetoric, embedded in military discourse. Three main schools exist: a dominant camp viewing Israel as a permanent adversary, a second which sees the Jewish state as a persistent strategic competitor, and a smaller, pragmatic and transactional camp. Sisi, who is from the pragmatic camp, prioritizes combating political Islam over confrontation with Israel.
The peace is largely cold, driven by mutual interests like counterterrorism and vital US military assistance ($1.3 billion annually), not genuine warmth. The recent Gaza war severely strained this, with Egyptian officials expressing tremendous resentment and viewing Israel as cavalier about Egyptian national security interests due to actions like bombing the Rafah crossing and calls for forced displacement. Egypt has even accused Israel of criminal practices like using starvation as a weapon.
Egypt’s internal vulnerabilities — repression, economic instability, Sinai’s militarization, and military suspicion — make the peace treaty with Israel precarious. This is not stable peace, but a ticking bomb. For Israel, unwavering vigilance is paramount. It must move beyond the illusion of a settled peace, adapt strategic assessments, and recognize that understanding Egypt’s evolving internal dynamics is critical. True security demands clear-eyed recognition of this vital relationship’s inherent fragility.
Amine Ayoub is a policy analyst and writer based in Morocco.
