Murder Rate Plunges — Biggest One-Year Drop in U.S. History: Report

Don delivered, the comeback is real, and the numbers back it up.

According to an Axios report, the United States is on pace for the most significant one-year drop in murders ever recorded, according to an analysis by crime data expert Jeff Asher.

The plunge marks a dramatic reversal from the COVID-era crime spike — and it isn’t limited to just one city or region.

Data from the Real-Time Crime Index, which compiles reports from 570 law enforcement agencies, shows murders down nearly 20% compared with the same period in 2024.

Mass killings also declined in 2025, falling to their lowest level since 2006.

The database — which excludes manslaughter, self-defense, negligence, and accidental killings — currently runs through October. While the FBI won’t release official 2025 crime data until next year, RTCI estimates have historically tracked closely with federal figures.

And it’s not just homicides.

Other major crime categories are down nationwide and across cities of all sizes:
• Motor vehicle theft: down 23.2%
• Aggravated assault: down 7.5%
• Robbery: down 18.3%

Big cities saw some of the sharpest drops.

New York City and Memphis each recorded murder declines near 20% compared with last year. Chicago saw killings plunge nearly 28%.

Los Angeles County posted a nearly 19% drop, while New Orleans saw murders fall 7.5%.

But the picture isn’t uniform.

After years of fear, chaos, and pandemic-era violence, America’s murder rate is falling fast.

FBI Director Kash Patel shared the news on X, saying, “U.S. murders on pace for largest one-year drop on record – not an accident. @realDonaldTrump’s policy letting good cops be cops WORKS. Lives being saved every single day under this administration with great local partners across the country. And more work to do.”

🚨 U.S. murders on pace for largest one-year drop on record – not an accident. @realDonaldTrump’s policy letting good cops be cops WORKS. Lives being saved every single day under this administration with great local partners across the country. And more work to do. pic.twitter.com/gA7p3Vy9Hu

— FBI Director Kash Patel (@FBIDirectorKash) December 24, 2025