Dallas Fed Working Paper Links Illegal Immigration Surge to Higher Home Prices and Rents

A new working paper from economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas estimates that the surge in illegal immigration during the Biden administration accounted for roughly 30% of the nation’s home price growth and 20% of rent increases between 2021 and 2024.

The study examined what researchers describe as an unprecedented influx of roughly 7 million unauthorized immigrants, combining immigration court records with government administrative data to measure how the population surge affected local labor and housing markets.

“From early 2021 to early 2024, the U.S. experienced an unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration, followed by a rapid slowdown beginning in mid-2024,” the authors wrote. “We provide the first systematic empirical assessment of the labor- and housing-market effects of this episode.”

According to the paper, average home prices rose 22.4% while rents climbed 22.6% during the study period.

“The total weighted-mean increases in house prices and rents over this period were 22.4% and 22.6%, respectively,” the researchers wrote. “Putting these together, for the average MSA, UIWF can explain approximately 30% of the total increase in house prices and 20% of the total increase in rents.”

The economists concluded that the influx of migrants boosted employment by expanding the labor force, but also intensified pressure on an already undersupplied housing market.

Researchers found little evidence that home construction accelerated enough to absorb the additional demand, creating what they described as a demand shock in metropolitan areas where housing supply was already constrained.

The paper is among the first attempts to quantify the economic effects of the record migration wave using detailed administrative data, though the authors stressed that it remains a preliminary working paper released for academic review.

They cautioned that the findings do not necessarily represent the official views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas or the Federal Reserve System.

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BREAKING: Fed Reserve working paper suggests Biden illegal immigrant wave drove up home prices 30% https://t.co/33dSYRr5Pa

— Just the News (@JustTheNews) July 6, 2026