New Texas Poll Shows Ken Paxton Leading James Talarico

Republican Ken Paxton holds a one-point lead over Democrat James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate race in Texas, according to a new Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media survey of likely voters released Thursday.

The poll found 47% of respondents support pro-life Paxton while 46% support pro-abortion Talarico. Five percent remain undecided and 2% support someone else.

The survey of 1,000 likely voters was conducted August 9-10 and has a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

“The race for U.S. Senate in Texas is sharply divided by age: voters under 50 favor Talarico by 15 points, 53% to 38%, while those over 50 break for Paxton by 11 points, 53% to 42%,” said Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling.

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Paxton’s stronger showing among voters over 50 underscores continued support for the Republican in a state where traditional pro-life values and the protection of life remain central concerns for many older Texans.

In the governor’s race, pro-life Republican Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa 49% to 45%, with 4% undecided. Abbott’s job approval stands at 46%, with 49% disapproving.

President Donald Trump’s approval is 47%, with 48% disapproving.

Hispanic voters break for the Democrats, favoring Talarico by 19 points and Hinojosa by 17 points. Majorities of Hispanic respondents disapprove of both Trump (58%) and Abbott (57%).

The economy ranks as the top issue for 30% of Texas voters, followed by immigration at 19%, threats to democracy at 14%, and healthcare at 13%. Among Republicans, immigration is the leading concern at 32%.

Forty-three percent of voters say Texas is on the right track, while 48% say the state is headed in the wrong direction. Paxton’s favorability is split at 43% favorable and 44% unfavorable. Talarico registers 44% favorable and 41% unfavorable.

The Emerson survey was weighted by gender, education, race, age, and region using U.S. Census parameters and voter file data.