For starters, we can “know” nothing for certain with a month and a half to go until the November 3rd elections. Here are some basic facts. Republicans hold a small majority in the Senate and a razor-thin advantage in the House.
*The Senate has 53 Republicans and 47 Democrats (two are Independents but they caucus with the Democrats). There are 35 seats up in 2026, including special elections in Florida and Ohio. Republicans hold 22 of those 35 seats. Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control. As of today,11 U.S. senators are not seeking reelection in 2026.
*All 435 members of the House of Representatives are up for election. There are 219 Republicans, 212 Democrats, with 4 vacant seats. Democrats would need a net gain of 6 seats to reach 218, which is the majority in the 435-member House.
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According to Drew DeSilver of Pew Research, “2026 primary season yields greatest preelection House turnover in over 3 decades.”
Before a single general-election vote has been tallied, 74 House members are already heading out the door – more than before any general election since 1992.
As of now, 42 Republicans and 32 Democrats won’t be returning to the House next year. That’s because they ran or are running for some other office instead; failed to win their primaries; resigned and haven’t been replaced via special election; or simply decided to retire from the House.
“Sixty U.S. House incumbents — 23 Democrats and 37 Republicans — in 32 states are not seeking re-election in the 2026 election cycle.”
“For election handicapping, analysts often focus on the 60 members not seeking reelection because those create open seats, which tend to be more competitive than seats with incumbents running.”
Here are the ten most competitive Senate races:
Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Hampshire, Ohio, and Texas.
Two things to remember. First, “Negative polling can demoralize Republican voters,” as if Kurt Schlichter needed to remind us. Remember any poll is a “snapshot” in time, not a forecast carved in stone. Whatever the numbers show today, elections can and have and will again turn on a dime.
Second, which is a subset of the first, is that turnout almost always decides elections, and even more so for “off-year” (non-presidential) elections. Amber Roseboom, president, of Right to Life of Michigan, told me
“If pro-lifers vote, we can and will see wins up and down the ballot. Typically, pro-life voter turnout drops in key states in mid-terms. For example, in Michigan, pro-life voter turnout dropped 19% from 2016 to 2018 and 26% from 2020 to 2022. Polling demonstrates that if we can increase expected pro-life voter turnout by just 4% this year, we can win.”
It’s as simple as this: When pro-lifers do not go to the polls, unborn babies and their mothers suffer.
LifeNews.com Note: Dave Andrusko is the editor of National Right to Life News and an author and editor of several books on abortion topics. He frequently writes Today’s News and Views — an online opinion column on pro-life issues.
