President Donald Trump’s purported desire to end the war in Iran sooner rather than later is at odds with Israel’s timetable, reports indicate.
On Wednesday, Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz essentially said that Israel will decide when the war will end. “This operation will continue without any time limit until we have achieved all the objectives and the battle is decided,” he said. Moreover, noted German press agency DPA:
he said Israel would continue to attack in order to smash the power apparatus “in Tehran and throughout Iran day by day, target by target.” This should enable the Iranian people to revolt and overthrow the country’s leadership, he said.
Katz, like Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, desperately wants regime change in Iran. Netanyahu reiterated that goal on Tuesday, according to The Wall Street Journal:
Our aspiration is to enable the Iranian people to cast off the yoke of tyranny; ultimately, it is up to them. There is no doubt that through the actions taken so far, we are breaking their bones and we are still active.
While Israel is giving Iran all it can handle, Iran is doing its best to give as good as it’s taking. Fox News corroborated reports that Iran, in partnership with its proxy Hezbollah, were lobbing drones, missiles, and even cluster bombs into Israel. Cluster bombs are more difficult to intercept because they break into small “bomblets.” Fox correspondent Nate Foy said half of the bombs fired at Tel Aviv are cluster munitions.
Quick Regime Change Not Likely
Israel has been working over U.S. leadership for decades as part of their attempt to bring about regime change in Iran. Netanyahu is on record warning of the Islamic nation being close to obtaining nuclear weapons going back to the 1990s. So it makes sense that they would be reluctant to end the mission before Iran’s leadership is swapped out for one that is more Israel-friendly. They may not get another U.S. administration as willing to assist them as the Trump administration has been.
Nevertheless, as of now, regime change appears elusive. The new supreme leader is the son of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the first day of the war. Mojtaba Khamenei is younger, obviously, but equally if not more religiously radical. Trump said on Monday that he was disappointed in this turn of events, but refused to commit to “taking out” the younger Khamenei. But that doesn’t mean Israel won’t try to do it. Israeli officials are on record saying they’re open to killing anyone they view as a hostile leader.
Unlike Israel, Trump appears to have moved the goal post regarding regime change. When he announced the war on February 28 he appeared sold on it. But based on comments he made Monday, he no longer views regime change as a deal breaker. “We want a system that can lead to many years of peace, and if we can’t have that, we might as well get it over with right now,” he said.
U.S. & Israel Disagree
A Wall Street Journal report from Wednesday bolsters the notion that Israel wants to drag out the war longer than America does:
There is some concern among White House officials that Israel wants the war to last after the U.S. expresses its desire to end the bombing campaign, the officials said. U.S. and Israeli officials say the Israeli message is it will stop its campaign in Iran whenever U.S. involvement stops. Trump has told aides he wants to end the war on his terms and, after brokering a cease-fire in last year’s 12-day war, believes he can put a stop to the fighting when he wants, U.S. officials said.
White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt tried to reassert Trump’s leadership in the decision-making process. “The end of America’s involvement in this conflict will ultimately be determined by the commander in chief, when he feels the military objectives are fully met, and the threat of the rogue Iranian regime has been completely demolished,” she said.
It’s difficult to tell what that means, especially since the president admitted Monday that he was open to ending U.S. participation in the war despite not having “won enough.” When asked what he meant by that, Trump said it referred to a point at which Iran will have no “capacity whatsoever — for a very long period of time — of developing weaponry against the United States, Israel, or any of our allies.” So the president admits he’s willing to end the war without hard assurance that Iran won’t have the capacity to build nuclear weapons in the future.
The United States is also at loggerheads with Israel over the latter’s choice of targets. “The U.S. also told Israel Monday that the administration was ‘not happy’ with the attacks on Iranian energy facilities and told Israel not to do it again unless approved by Washington, according to U.S. sources,” noted the Journal.
Effect on Oil
Monday’s press conference suggested that Trump is facing intense pressure to end the war. Oil prices have spiked in the U.S., even though only two percent of the petroleum Americans consume comes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is basically shut down.
Reports emerged Wednesday saying Iran hit three commercial ships going through the strait. It’ll be interesting to see how Trump reacts, given that Monday he said he would hit Iranian infrastructure targets he had earlier preserved if the strait was disturbed.
An Unpopular War
This war has been unpopular among Americans from the beginning. The most favorable poll, from Fox News, showed that the people were split 50-50. A Reuters/Ipsos survey showed support for the war at 27 percent. And a CNN poll showed that 59 percent of Americans disapprove of the strikes. The polls, of course, break down more or less along partisan lines. But even that’s telling, since Fox is showing, at best, barely above 50 percent approval.
