Comments by General Thierry Burkhard, outgoing chief of the French armed forces, will reignite debate among defence specialists regarding Russia’s intentions and capabilities, since he considers that Russia is rearming fast enough to become a “real threat” to Europe within five years. That is earlier than the majority of forecasts among defence and intelligence analysts.
Burkhard told The Economist that, by 2030, “Russia will possess the means once again to pose a military threat to Western countries, and European countries in particular.” The analysis itself is less surprising than the timescale. However, such predictions are notoriously difficult to assess and, for counter-intuitive reasons, the fact that Russia is currently engaged in a major war may actually make it more difficult to estimate its military potential five years from now.
