According to a CBS News report, tax refunds could be higher in 2026 thanks to the Trump Administration’s One Big Beautiful Bill.
Federal tax refunds — often a family’s largest check of the year — are projected to grow significantly in the next filing season, with the average refund expected to increase by about $1,000 per filer, according to a new analysis from financial services company Piper Sandler.
Based on IRS data showing that the average refund for the 2025 filing season was $3,151, next year’s typical refund could reach $4,151. Americans will file their 2025 returns in early 2026, with most refunds issued within 21 days of submitting returns to the IRS.
The findings are in line with other forecasts pointing to a potential record-setting refund year, largely driven by the tax and spending law signed by President Trump in July. The legislation included retroactive tax breaks for 2025 — eliminating taxes on certain overtime and tipped income, and raising the SALT deduction cap from $10,000 to $40,000.
“When people go to file, they’ll be surprised by really, really large refunds,” said Don Schneider, deputy head of U.S. policy at Piper Sandler and a co-author of the report. He estimated that tax refunds could total about $360 billion, compared to roughly $270 billion in a typical year.
Schneider noted that most Americans have not adjusted their withholding to reflect the retroactive tax cuts, in part because it’s difficult to calculate the impact. As a result, refunds could be one-third larger than usual, averaging an additional $1,000 per filer when returns are filed in early 2026.
“It could be one of the largest tax refund seasons ever,” Schneider said.
More over at CBS News:
.@CBSNews: Your tax refund could be $1,000 higher in 2026.
“The analysis aligns with other forecasts predicting a bumper year for tax refunds, driven by the ‘one big, beautiful’ tax and spending law signed by President Trump in July.”https://t.co/tiq5gj9HKz
— Karoline Leavitt (@PressSec) November 26, 2025
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