Republican Winsome Earle-Sears, a staunch pro-life advocate vowing to protect the unborn from what she calls a “wicked” assault on families, is gaining ground in a tightening race for Virginia governor against Democrat Abigail Spanberger, the latest polling shows.
A survey by the Wason Center at Christopher Newport University, released Monday and conducted October 21-23 among 803 likely voters, has Spanberger leading 50% to 43%, with 6% undecided. That seven-point margin marks a narrowing from an earlier 10-point advantage for the Democrat this month, signaling momentum for Earle-Sears as Election Day approaches on November 4.
Earle-Sears, Virginia’s lieutenant governor and the first Black woman elected statewide in the commonwealth, has framed her campaign around family values and economic stability, drawing strong support from Republicans at 95%.
She leads among white voters 54%-33% and men 51%-43%, while Spanberger holds commanding edges with Democrats (97%), women (57%-37%), Black voters (84%-6%) and college-educated Virginians (58%-35%).
In the lieutenant governor’s contest, Sen. Ghazala Hashmi, D-Richmond, holds a slim 47% to 45% edge over Republican John Reid, a conservative talk-show host, while the attorney general’s race remains a virtual toss-up, with incumbent Republican Jason Miyares leading Democrat Jay Jones by a single point, 46%-to-45%.
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The single-point advantage marks a reversal from earlier polling that showed Jones up six points before the emergence of a damaging text-messaging scandal earlier this month.
According to the poll, 75% of likely voters have heard at least some coverage of Jones’ 2022 texts, and nearly half say the revelations could influence their vote. Among those aware of the reports, 56% say the messages make them less likely to support Jones, compared to 3% who say they make them more likely. Thirty-nine percent of polled voters said the scandal would not impact whether they plan to vote for Jones.
Pro-life leaders are rallying behind Earle-Sears, portraying her as a bulwark against a Democratic push for a constitutional amendment that would enshrine abortion access through all nine months of pregnancy. The measure teeters on a razor-thin pro-abortion majority in the House of Delegates, with just two votes to spare.
“Supporting pro-life candidates like Sears is essential to reject the Party of Death,” said Olivia Gans Turner, president of the Virginia Society for Human Life.
The group is mobilizing door-to-door canvassing and digital ads to boost turnout among pro-life voters, emphasizing Earle-Sears’ commitment to alternatives for mothers and an end to what they describe as the normalization of violence against the unborn.
Since the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision, Turner said, unlimited abortion has fostered a “culture where human life is devalued, pregnancies are seen as problems to eliminate, and abortion is viewed as big business that corrupts doctors, healthcare workers, and social workers by ignoring the lives destroyed and failing to support mothers.”
Earle-Sears has been unyielding in her opposition, calling abortion “wicked and a direct attack on the Black community.” Her campaign highlights these concerns alongside economic issues, arguing they are intertwined with threats to family integrity.
The race remains a stark partisan divide, with no pro-life Democrats running for major state offices.
Spanberger, a former congresswoman, has surged in fundraising, outpacing Earle-Sears by millions in recent months. But the narrowing gap underscores Virginia’s status as a battleground, where suburban voters and turnout in key demographics could tip the scales.
With early voting underway, Earle-Sears’ team is banking on energized conservative bases to close the distance further. Pro-life advocates warn that a Spanberger victory would cement expansive abortion up to birth, while Earle-Sears promises a governorship that prioritizes life at every stage.
