Taylor Swift’s long-anticipated engagement to Travis Kelce has predictably dominated the recent news cycle. Wedding bells have been ringing in editorial rooms ever since the two started dating in 2023, so when Kelce finally proposed, photos of the Kansas City Chief All-Pro embracing the pop star jumped from screen to screen, prompting a myriad of think pieces.
Some right-leaning pundits speculated whether the coming celebrity wedding would promote family values and spur a much-needed uptick in the birth rate across the U.S. in 2024. The American fertility rate has dropped to fewer than 1.6 children per woman, with births to young women continuing to plunge while births to older women climbed a little.
Because the future of our republic hinges on a healthy birth rate, the problem is something the White House is now striving to address. MAGA influencers are taking the trend seriously, so no surprise that they noticed Swift’s engagement. “Get ready for the great American baby boom,” announced Evie magazine. “Young women should get married just like Taylor Swift is planning to. You will be happier,” recommended Turning Point CEO Charlie Kirk. University of Virginia professor Brad Wilcox took a much more somber approach to the matter, however.
While remaining skeptical, Wilcox acknowledged that Swift holds sway over many young women and that popular culture may impact family formation:
Media and cultural signals play a powerful role in shaping decisions about dating, marriage, children, and divorce. One study even found that a popular soap opera in Brazil led to higher divorce rates and lower birth rates. Similarly, high-profile celebrity cases of non-marital childbearing may have contributed to the weakening of the marriage norm in America.
Unfortunately, those are the examples of mass culture successfully discouraging matrimony. But destruction is easy; change in the other direction, toward building strong families in a society that is at best lukewarm about it, is hard. And the presumption that Swift has some kind of near-magic power to change the trajectory of our society hinges on too many assumptions.
To begin with, the pop singer’s influence in the real world is overblown. Sure, many young women adore her, but she has already proved to be a failure as a kingmaker. In 1992, Madonna filmed herself for MTV Rock the Vote wrapped in the American flag. Youth turnout surged that year, albeit many of the under-30 voters belonged to the Ross Perot camp. Still, video star power deserves some credit for Bill Clinton’s presidential victory.
Fast-forward to 2024, when Swift endorsed the “steady-handed, gifted leader” Kamala Harris, signing off her social media endorsement “childless cat lady” as a dig at J.D. Vance’s throwaway line about America being governed by same. She drew half a million visitors to vote.org in 24 hours. That Tay-Tay generated online excitement is not in doubt, but Harris lost the election to Trump, after which some celebrities dropped out of the political commentary game altogether, realizing that their opinions tended to alienate people. Why should Swift’s private life choices be any different?
It’s instructive to think that when she was starting out, Swift marketed herself as a country singer. Yet compare her life story to a classic country performer like Loretta Lynn, who married at 15, lived with her [cheating] husband until his death 50 years later, and had six kids. Or Tammy Wynette, married five times (initially at 17) with four children. Or even Dolly Parton, who married at 20 but who remained childless.
Country women made their life an open book, singing from the heart, even if their lyrics shouldn’t be taken literally. Take Wynette, who, contra her most popular song, never stood by her man. Words don’t need to be aligned with biographies; the audience knows that the singers’ lives were full and that the emotion was true and raw. It also happens to be the kind of art that’s aging well. Teen pregnancies and marriages are exceedingly rare these days, but the music still speaks to us.
Swift, on the other hand, had a string of meaningless affairs and forgettable songs. Her most genius move was to wear the instantly recognizable red lipstick. Somehow, classic country remains more relatable despite the fact that the culture that gave us early marriages and large families is gone. If a singer can’t resurrect it in her song, she’s probably not going to will it on the national level either.
In fact, the first half of Swift’s life has been a triumph of feminist excess. The vocalist is now 35, or, as obstetricians say, of advanced maternal age. Nevertheless, I wish her and her future husband a long and stable marriage and healthy kids, something that many women who married late were able to achieve.
And if Kelce-Swift fulfills their wish to start a family, which I certainly hope they will, they will be further solidifying the idea that middle age women are just as fertile as the young. Unfortunately, many have found out the hard way that such is not always the case.
The truth about fertility decline with age was never a secret, but for many decades ostensibly educated upper-middle-class American women chose to believe that childbearing could wait and that focusing on career first was a smart and practical move. Swift, too, prioritized career, though in her defense she has a fun entertainment job, not shuffling papers or juggling phone calls. Even if she leaves no offspring, she, like Parton, will still have something to brag about.
One may argue that at least Swift didn’t lean into her childless cat lady image; at least she is engaged, even late in life. And I certainly hope that other women will follow her example. But millennials and Gen Z are now so addicted to social media, I’m not sure they would know how to navigate even a real-life conversation, never mind a real-life marriage.
Young people today will not be the first ones to live vicariously through celebrities. Girls don’t usually change boyfriends like gloves the way Swift did; it was enough to listen to her songs. They may not know how to meet a man, so they may settle on the spectacle of the queen bee’s wedding.
Speaking of which, the media is no doubt hyping the upcoming affair because of the profit potential. In 2011, the reality star Kim Kardashian married basketball player Kris Humphries, and stayed married for … 72 days. Her former publicist Jonathan Jaxson said the ceremony was a stunt and that his client threw a lavish multi-day fairy tale party to sell publicity rights. She made out with a few million.
From the media’s point of view, Swift and Kelce’s matrimony is equally lucrative. This is not to say that their engagement is not real. After all, authentic fake is not their brand. But the audiences for this kind of production don’t know the couple, nor are they invited to witness the nuptials in person. It might as well be fakery because they will be glued to their screens, their media addiction being fed in real time. I just don’t see how it will help our stagnant birth rate.
Today, the only First World country posting a healthy birth rate is Israel. Reasons for it are complex, and the fact that the nation lives in a constant succession of postwar baby booms certainly plays a role. Even so, worldwide Jewish population has yet to recoup after the Holocaust.
Israel, of course, is a worldwide tech leader, but consider a recent poll that revealed that, for the first time, the majority of young Israelis are fully Shabbat observant. That means that most of those aged 18–29 don’t use any electricity for 24 hours every weekend. In other words, young Israelis go through a regular and mandatory social media (and gaming) detox. They spend the time in prayer and community building.
No dime-store Marilyn Monroe and Joe DiMaggio will fix the American fertility crisis. They can’t teach young people how to turn off their devices and go out in the world. Swifties may idolize a singer, but that doesn’t necessarily translate into following her example, flawed as it is. But faith leaders can instruct their flock to go Internet-free for a day, and parents should set rules for that early on.
