Republicans Looking Better for Midterms With polling and Redistricting Surge

They’re building a 110-foot Ferris wheel on the National Mall, but maybe a roller coaster would be more appropriate. That’s what Americans have been riding when it comes to Congress. The two sides keep trading places on the midterm election desperation scale, and with six months to go, everything is as fluid as the Potomac. But considering where the GOP was just three weeks ago, that’s a major improvement.

Republicans, who barely had a political heartbeat heading into November, were brought back to life by twin court rulings — one that struck down Virginia Democrats’ appalling new congressional map and another that ended the practice of racial gerrymandering that hamstrung the GOP in southern states for decades. And while Speaker Mike Johnson’s (R-La.) party is breathing a collective sigh of relief, the reality is this: if Congress were a popularity contest, there would be no winners right now. Both parties have significant optics problems, and judging by voters’ disillusionment with Washington, solving them will be tough.

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On one side, you have Democrats who have no guiding agenda except to unite against Donald Trump. What’s left of their party’s policy ideas has been hijacked by far-Left socialists who can’t relate to everyday Americans. To regain their 10-to-1 House advantage on Virginia’s congressional map, they suggest firing the entire state supreme court that ruled against them in a shocking forced retirement coup that even The New York Times admits “drew mixed reactions.” Former Democratic Congressman James Moran fretted that the move was “just a bridge too far” and could backfire. Yes, the party needs to fight back, he agreed, but “We do have to keep our credibility. We have to do things that pass the legitimacy test.”

Former Virginia Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli has seen a lot of Democratic power grabs over the years, but even he couldn’t believe Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries’s (N.Y.) party would consider something so outrageous. And yet, even after Virginia Speaker Don Scott (D) declared, “We respect the decision of the Supreme Court of Virginia,” Democrats are making a desperate appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.

“Frankly,” Cuccinelli said on Monday’s “Washington Watch,” “a lot of us lawyers in Virginia were curious what they would even argue to the Supreme Court to try to undo a state supreme court ruling on a state constitution. … To take you back to your high school civics class … the federal Supreme Court — the U.S. Supreme Court — doesn’t have jurisdiction to decide state constitutional issues,” he reminded people. There are strict requirements in every state, Cuccinelli pointed out, about how you bring a referendum like the redistricting measure forward. “And the Democrat[ic] general assembly rather brazenly violated those.” So now they’re asking the justices to step in.

“I’m smiling because it’s just laughable,” he said. “It’s embarrassing what they’re trying to argue to the Supreme Court to try to get the court to [act]. If there’s a federal issue, the federal Supreme Court can step in, but there are no federal issues.” Instead, Cuccinelli shook his head, Democrats are “in a position of really desperately reaching on these legal arguments.” And frankly, he added, “I don’t think they’re even going to be heard, because the chief justice who sits over the Fourth Circuit, John Roberts, will determine that the court has no jurisdiction and won’t even advance them to the full Supreme Court.”

Adding to Jeffries’s “state of anguish,” the U.S. Supreme Court did step in this week on another matter: Alabama’s congressional maps. When the justices removed race as a factor in drawing House districts in Louisiana v. Callais, Alabama Attorney General Steve Marshall (R) asked for the same relief in his state. “Alabama deserves the right to use its own maps, just like every other state,” he insisted. In a 6-3 decision, the court granted his request — opening the door to a redistricting effort that could affect Alabama’s two Democratic seats (and other southern governors who may push for the same treatment).

But Republicans have their share of political migraines too. While Johnson, Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.), and Trump are staring down a massive affordability crisis, pain at the pump, and an unpopular (though necessary) Iran war, their worst enemy is a familiar one: self-sabotage. Unfortunately, wars are expensive, and the president is taking what measures he can to tamp down the hurt the Middle East conflict is having on the average family. This week, he called for a gas tax holiday and got behind the Senate’s housing bill to bring down the “sky-high cost of living.”

And yet, against this grim economic backdrop, the White House is pushing hard for an extra $1 billion in security funding for the East Wing ballroom — a cause that plenty of people are slamming as tone-deaf in the current climate. What feels like a “let them eat cake” moment is creating a lot of heartburn for Republicans, who are trying to show empathy for the hard financial times voters have fallen on. “If I’m in the Democratic marketing department, I’m probably thinking of a lot of ways I would use this to target senators that vote for it,” Senator Thom Tillis (R-N.C.) warned. “Even if you can get past the policy and justify it, the timing and optics are really bad.”

Some strategists are already taking Tillis’s advice, teeing up ads and messaging that show an out-of-touch administration. “Trump just threw a fastball over the middle of the plate that Democrats can blast out of the park,” Democrat Brad Bannon cheered.

Of course, the Left’s allegations that this is a Trump “vanity project” aren’t entirely fair, given the near-fatal shooting at the White House Correspondents’ Dinner last month. The president had also raised the bulk of the building costs privately, but as most concede, a Secret Service overhaul of this magnitude requires federal funds. But the reality is that a $1 billion security project seems uniquely extravagant when families are struggling to pay for groceries. “I think the narrative around that needs to shift,” Thune argued. “For sure, the Dems will try to make a political issue out of it. But substantively, there’s a really compelling argument.” As Punchbowl News’s team bluntly observes, protecting the president and his guests is important, but let’s face it. “None of this helps with soaring electricity bills or gas prices.”

But Jeffries will need more than an East Wing drama to win the keys to Congress. Yes, the historical headwinds are against the president’s party in a midterm showdown. But as a former Biden advisor, Yemisi Egbewole, told The Hill, “Just because you push out anti-Trump rhetoric doesn’t mean that voters choose a Democrat in place of a Republican or a Trump-like figure,” she said. “It just means that maybe they don’t vote for the Republican who reminds them of Trump.”

Apart from the redistricting landslide, it might surprise Americans to know that Republicans are in much better shape than the media is giving them credit for. To the shock of both establishments, CNN’s polling on the generic ballot — the same one that gave Democrats a six-point edge in March — is showing Jeffries’s party coming back to Earth. If anything, Republicans seem to be finding their stride at 42% to Democrats’ 45%. Thirteen percent of Americans chose “neither.”

Also telling, pundits say, is Cook Political Report’s latest House ratings compared to 2018’s, which show 11 fewer toss-up districts (19 compared to 30), more safe Republican seats (209 compared to 195), and fewer safe Democratic seats (207 compared to 210). People might also be surprised to learn that Americans hold a more favorable view of the GOP than Democrats (32-28%), despite all of the fierce economic headwinds.

So maybe Speaker Johnson isn’t crazy to say they’re “bullish” about the midterm elections. Sitting down with Family Research Council President Tony Perkins for “This Week on Capitol Hill,” he reiterated that he’s optimistic “in spite

of the media’s breathless prognostications that Republicans are going to lose the House. And remember, they cheer against us every single day,” he emphasized. “Everything that we’ve accomplished in this Congress they said was impossible, could not be done. They also said we were going to lose in 2024. So I wouldn’t put any stock into any of their [predictions]. And I would not put any stock at all into historic trends,” the Louisianan stressed.

“It is true, as we’ve discussed many times, that we have to defy history to win the midterms and grow the majority this time around, but I’m convinced we will.” He pointed to the trend of far-Left Democrats winning some recent primaries. “That’s of great concern to the Democrat[ic] Party, because they’re not electable people in a general election — one more trend I think that works in our favor for November.”

At the end of the day, Johnson reiterated, “[I]t’s prayer and patience that delivers these wins.” But, he added with a smile, “Don’t ever bet against the House Republicans.”

LifeNews Note: Suzanne Bowdey serves as editorial director and senior writer at The Washington Stand, where this originally appeared.