The huge Texas Senate race between a radical abortion activist and the pro-life state Attorney General is essentially tied.
Democrat James Talarico holds a one-point lead over Republican Ken Paxton in Texas’ U.S. Senate race, according to a Texas Southern University poll released Tuesday, a margin inside the survey’s error range as national pro-life groups urge voters to back Paxton.
The Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center at TSU surveyed 1,800 likely voters from Sept. 11 to 18.
Talarico stood at 47 percent, Paxton at 46 percent, Libertarian Ted Brown at 3 percent and 4 percent undecided. The margin of error was 2.3 percentage points.
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Ninety-nine percent of Democrats backed Talarico, and 84 percent of Republicans backed Paxton. That means if Republicans can get their own voters to back Paxton he would likely win the race.
Paxton led by 19 points among white likely voters. Talarico led by 19 points among Latino voters and by 77 points among Black voters. Among voters who said they planned to support Gov. Greg Abbott, 93 percent said they would vote for Paxton.
Early voting is scheduled for Oct. 19-30. Election Day is Nov. 3.
Paxton, Texas attorney general since 2015, has been endorsed by Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America and National Right to Life. Talarico, a Democratic state representative, is the party’s Senate nominee and has a long record promoting abortions up to birth.
Those groups describe him as a pro-abortion candidate who would take that agenda to Washington.
SBA Pro-Life America endorsed Paxton on Aug. 4. President Marjorie Dannenfelser said, “Ken Paxton has been a warrior on behalf of the unborn in Texas. He is the fighter we need at this crucial moment to defeat radical James Talarico and stand in the arena of the U.S. Senate.”
The group said Paxton was the first attorney general in the country to sue an out-of-state abortionist for sending mail-order abortion drugs into Texas and that he has defended the Texas Heartbeat Act, efforts to keep taxpayer money from Planned Parenthood, and pregnancy centers.
Dannenfelser said Talarico “voted against medical care for newborns who’ve just survived an abortion attempt,” that his push “to enshrine no-limits, all-trimester abortion in the Texas Constitution leaves no doubt how he would vote,” and that “he went so far as to call for federally run abortion centers in pro-life states.”
“Texans shouldn’t be fooled by Talarico’s ‘moderate’ pose or underestimate how much harm he would do in the Senate, twisting Scripture to preach the killing of babies for any reason, at any point up to birth,” she said. “Texans deserve a champion for the unborn who’ll defend innocent babies against these heartless attacks on their humanity and rights.”
National Right to Life endorsed Paxton on Sept. 16.
Its president Carol Tobias said, “Throughout his service as Texas attorney general, Ken Paxton has consistently defended life. We are confident he will bring that same commitment and leadership to the U.S. Senate.”
She said Paxton “will be an important voice for unborn children and all vulnerable members of the human family.”
SBA said it and partner Women Speak Out PAC are investing $160 million to elect pro-life candidates in the 2026 midterms and the 2028 presidential cycle.
The Senate race remains inside the margin of error.
Pro-life groups say the choice is whether Texas sends to Washington an attorney general who has spent years defending state limits on abortion, or a Democrat they say would vote to wipe those limits away and impose abortion policy on every state.
