“The Christian ideal has not been tried and found wanting,” G.K. Chesterton noted in 1910. “It has been found difficult; and left untried.” Perhaps this helps explain why Christian adherence is in decline in the United Sates. On the other hand, whether or not Islam is found difficult, one thing is for sure.
It’s being tried — with zeal.
The former reality has inspired glee among Christophobes; the latter, alarm among Christians (and others). An example of this alarm is the recent Daily Mail feature, “Experts: Islam will be the dominant religion in America.” There’s an issue, however:
This isn’t really what “experts” are saying — not most of them, anyway.
In question is the United States’ (and world’s) “religious” landscape in ~2070. It’s predicted that Islam will overtake Christianity around that date as the world’s largest religion. In the United States, however, it’s poised to remain a minority faith; that is, based on current projections.
What worries many, though, are displays such as the below, in which Muslims “took over” NYC’s Union Square to pray.
Reacting to this, one X respondent wrote, “I seriously doubt that they are praying. They are trying to assert their dominance.”
Of course, it could be both — and some could be praying for dominance.
Another X user echoed the above-cited, asserting, “They aren’t praying. It’s an act of aggression.”
Now, various groups of people will always be alarmed when certain belief expression is “in your face.” It’s also true that various beliefs will at times be expressed in an in-your-face fashion. (This includes secular beliefs. The sexual devolutionary — i.e., “LGBTQ+” — agenda in schools, for instance.) Yet what does America’s religious future really look like? (And is “brief” the answer?)
The Numbers
Understanding our cultural trajectory requires examining current trends. As USA Today reported February 26:
Pew Research Center released Wednesday its latest Religious Landscape Study, the nonpartisan research center’s third-ever report of this kind on U.S. religious identity, belief and practice. The last two reports were in 2014 and 2007.
According to the new study, 62% of U.S. adults identify as Christian, 29% are religiously unaffiliated, often called “nones,” and 7% identify as other religions including Judaism, Islam, Buddhism and Hinduism. The share of Christians is down by 9 percentage points from a decade ago and the religiously unaffiliated up by 6 percentage points, though Pew researchers said it’s a complex trend.
Note here that the 62-percent-Christian figure is down from 90 percent in the early 1970s and 80 percent circa 1990-’92. It was 70 percent as recently as 2012-’14.
This said, the decline appears to be slowing. Apropos to this, there have been recent stories about how Gen Z men (age 13-28) are returning to church. On the other hand, Gen Z women’s greater decline in participation more than offsets this. Thus is the generation becoming less religious overall.
And Wither Islam?
Islam, however, is going in the opposite direction in America. As the Daily Mail told us Thursday:
The number of US mosques increased 31 percent between 2010 and 2020, from 2,106 to 2,769, according to the Islamic Resource Center. Meanwhile, roughly 1,500 Christian churches closed during the same period. Islam’s growth in the US is being fueled by Muslims’ relatively young age structure and high fertility rate, according to Pew Research Center. Islam currently has a younger median age — 35 compared with 54 for Christians — suggesting youth adherents could accelerate the religion’s growth. In 2017, the center estimated immigration was also driving the boom. [Regarding this, more Muslims have come to the U.S. since 9/11 than during our whole history prior to it.] And in February, CBS found that tens of thousands of Americans in prison convert to Islam each year.
Despite the above, projections hold that Muslims, currently one percent of the U.S. population, will still constitute only 2.1 percent by 2050 and perhaps 2.5-3 percent by 2070. The worldwide picture is different, however. It’s predicted that Islam will overtake Christianity in number of adherents between 2070 and 2100.
Insight and Perspective
What, though, will actually happen? One problem with predictions is that to a great extent, we’re just projecting the present into the future. Many things can and will change during the next half century (we may destroy ourselves, for one).
Moreover, in America, it isn’t Muslims, but those nones, who are predicted to become a belief-group plurality. They’re projected to be 48 percent of the U.S. population in 2070, while Christians will constitute only 39 percent.
What we don’t need a crystal ball to know, however, is that Christian belief has been waning. This isn’t inexplicable, either.
While the picture is multifaceted, a major factor is internet/social-media influence. In pre-web days, young people and others mainly circulated in and were influenced by their local communities. If their parents and most other residents went to church, they’d almost assuredly follow suit. And fitting in meant accepting the locale’s consensus sense of virtue. For example, in a traditionalist area, there would be great incentive to be traditionalist.
Those days are over. Teens can now go online and find multitudes of people, and virtual communities, espousing any belief you fancy. If you’re a Doubting Thomas, for example, you can find innumerable online atheists who’ll intensify your doubts and provide fellowship and emotional support. There is strength in numbers, is the point. And the numbers you once had to find locally you can now find globally. You can dial up any numbers you want, too, of better or worse angels.
The Thought Virus
Then there are the effects of moral relativism/nihilism. Researcher George Barna once lamented that Americans’ faith is “a mile wide and an inch deep.” And the Mail mentions the growth of “syncretism,” which is a blending of various beliefs.
Now consider that as Barna’s research company discovered in 2002, even most “born again” teens are moral relativists/nihilists. (Only nine percent believe in “moral absolutes.”) The study determined that they’re most likely to make “moral” decisions based on feelings.
This being the case, why would you have deep beliefs? You feel how you feel. With everything having been reduced to a matter of preference, of taste, what is there to ponder?
Under this mentality, your faith is about as deep as your affinity for chocolate ice cream. It’s what suits your palate — for now, anyway.
As for syncretism — or as someone close to my heart put it, “designer religion” — it also follows from this relativism/nihilism. If there’s no Truth and everything is “relative,” I may as well make everything relative to myself. I may as well indulge Chinese-buffet faith assemblage, with one from Group A, one from Group B, etc. That Christian salvation promise sounds good, but on sexual restraint I’ll go with the Buddhists or maybe the hedonists. Heaven sounds nice, but on that Hell business I’ll listen to the Hindus or Taoists. Of course, this all is often just a facade. It’s merely the placing of a spiritual veneer on the emotion- and urge-determined lifestyle I want to lead.
Hope Remains
In contrast to Christians, points out the Mail, Muslims do a better job of keeping their young in their faith. And note here: One thing they’re not is relativistic.
Again, though, we don’t know exactly what the future holds. What we can know is that there’s some good bad news. That is, there’s another pattern: Loss of faith leads to suffering and disaster — and suffering and disaster lead to faith.
