Pro-Life Laws Have Saved Thousands of Babies From Abortion Since Dobbs

Executive Summary

• Since the Supreme Court’s June 2022 Dobbs decision, many states have enacted strong pro-life laws that protect preborn children.

• Currently, 13 states protect all preborn children and four have a Heartbeat Law in effect that protects the preborn after a fetal heartbeat can be detected.[1]

• Multiple academic and policy studies analyzing state-level birth data all find there is a significant association between strong pro-life laws and increased state birthrates – suggesting these laws are saving lives.

Introduction

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After the Supreme Court’s 1973 Roe v. Wade decision, state laws that protected preborn children before 24 weeks of gestation were routinely struck down by various courts. However, on September 1, 2021, the Texas Heartbeat Act took effect. This legislation protects preborn children in Texas after a fetal heartbeat is detectable, which science has proven can happen as early as the sixth week of gestation.[2] This marked the first instance since Roe that a law protecting preborn children well before viability was in effect for an extended amount of time. Additionally, after the Supreme Court’s June 2022 decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women‘s Health Organization, it became much easier for states to enact laws that protect the preborn. Currently, 13 states protect all preborn children and four have a Heartbeat Law in effect that protects the preborn after a fetal heartbeat can be detected.[3]

Some question the impact of these recently enacted pro-life laws. Abortion estimates released by the  Guttmacher Institute[4] show abortions increasing each year from 2023 to 2025. Similarly, estimates released by the Society of Family Planning [5] have found that the incidence of abortion has been increasing in the United States since 2022. However, there are reasons for concern about these abortion estimates. The most recent estimates released by the Society of Family Planning indicate that in 2025, 28% of all abortions were done via telehealth.[6] Estimating the exact number of abortions done by telehealth is difficult. Some women who order abortion drugs online may change their minds and decide to carry their pregnancy to term. There are anecdotes that some women order abortion drugs for future use.

Furthermore, even if the estimates from Guttmacher and the Society of Family Planning are correct and abortion numbers have been increasing in recent years, it is still possible that newly enacted pro-life laws are still preventing abortions and saving lives. Guttmacher data indicates that the U.S. abortion rate began to increase in 2017, five years before Dobbs.[7] As such, it is possible that absent these pro-life laws, the overall number of abortions performed in the United States could be higher.

Regardless, during the post-Dobbs era, there have been clear difficulties with accurately measuring the number of abortions that are performed. However, one way to effectively measure the impact of recently enacted pro-life laws is to analyze birth data. If the number of births increase seven months after a pro-life law takes effect,[8] that is powerful evidence that some women are forgoing abortion and instead carrying pregnancies to term.

This Charlotte Lozier Institute policy analysis will summarize the findings of six different studies that analyze state-level birth data to estimate the impact of recently enacted pro-life laws. Three of these studies specifically analyze the impact of the Texas Heartbeat Act (New 2022,[9] Bell et al. 2024,[10] University of Houston 2024[11]). The other three studies analyze the impact of multiple state-level pro-life laws (Dench et al. 2024,[12] Bell et al. 2025,[13] Springer 2026[14]). Each of these studies finds very strong statistical evidence that these newly enacted state level pro-life laws are significantly associated with increased state birth rates. Overall, there is a strong consensus among economists, political scientists, and public health scholars that recently enacted pro-life laws are correlated with increased birthrates – suggesting that these pro-life laws are saving lives.

Studies Analyzing the Texas Heartbeat Act

Passing a law that would protect preborn children after a fetal heartbeat can be detected was a long-time priority for Texas state legislators. Efforts to enact such a law failed in 2013 and 2019.[15] However, on April 19, 2021, Texas Governor Greg Abbott signed the Texas Heartbeat Act into law.[16] The Act successfully withstood several legal challenges from plaintiffs, including abortion facilities, organizations supporting legal abortion, and even the U.S. Department of Justice.[17] The enacted law took effect September 1, 2021.[18] This was the first time since Roe that a law protecting preborn children well before viability was in effect for an extended period of time.

Three studies have analyzed Texas birth data to assess the impact of the Texas Heartbeat Act (New 2022,[19] Bell et al. 2024, University of Houston 2024). Each analysis found that the Texas birthrate increased 7 to 8 months after the Texas Heartbeat Act took effect. As such, they suggest that the Texas Heartbeat Act has saved hundreds of lives every month (Table 1). In a non-peer-reviewed Charlotte Lozier Institute policy study, New (2022) argued that the Texas Heartbeat Act would start to have an effect on the Texas birthrate in March 2022. That is because many of the abortions that were prevented in September 2021 would result in babies born in March 2022. New compared the sum of Texas births between March and July of 2022 to the average number of March to July births in Texas for the years 2019, 2020, and 2021. He found that the number of births in Texas increased by 5,046 between March and July of 2022 for an increase of approximately 1,009 births per month.

In a research letter that appeared in the Journal of the American Medical Association, Bell et al. (2023) analyzed Texas birth data from January 2016 to December 2022. Using a time series analysis and holding constant different covariates, the authors found that the Texas Heartbeat Act resulted in 9,799 more births during the nine months between April 2022 and December 2022. This comes out to an average of about 1,088 births per month.[20] This is close to the estimated increase reported by New (2022).

Finally, the University of Houston’s Institute for Research on Women, Gender & Sexuality released a study in 2024. It found that in 2022, the Texas fertility rate increased by 1.24 births per thousand women between the ages of 15-44. This comes out to an increase of 7,816 births.[21] The Texas Heartbeat Act would only start to have a significant effect on Texas births in March 2022. As such, over a 10 month (March 2022 to December 2022) timespan, this study finds that the Texas Heartbeat Act is correlated with an increase of 781.6 births per month.[22]

The University of Houston (2024) study finds that the Texas Heartbeat Act had a somewhat smaller impact on the Texas birthrate than the New or the Bell et al. studies. However, that is because it only compared the 2022 Texas birthrate to the previous year. In contrast New and Bell et al. compared the 2022 Texas birthrate to a range of previous years where the Texas birthrate was lower. Regardless, the University of Houston study contributes to a body of research finding that the Texas Heartbeat Act is associated with an increased Texas birthrate—suggesting it contributed to saving lives.

Table 1 – Studies of The Texas Heartbeat Act

Study	Timeframe/Data Analyzed	Impact
New (2022)	March to July 2019, 2020, 2021, 2022	1009.20 births per month
Bell, Stuart, Gemill (2024)	January 2016 – December 2022	1088.77 births per month
University of Houston (2024)	January 2021 – December 2022	781.6 births per month

Studies Analyzing a Range of Recent Pro-Life Laws

As mentioned previously, currently 13 states protect all preborn children and four have a Heartbeat Law in effect.[23] Some other states have enacted laws protecting the preborn later in gestation.[24] Three academic studies have analyzed state-level birth data to measure the impact of these newly enacted pro-life laws (Dench et al. 2024, Bell et al. 2025, Springer 2026). They all find that these legal protections for preborn children are correlated with increases in state birthrates, suggesting these laws have saved lives (Table 2).

In a Journal of the American Medical Association article, Bell et al. (2025) analyzed bimonthly fertility data from all 50 states and the District of Columbia for every year from 2012 to 2023. The authors analyzed the impact of heartbeat acts and abortion bans that were in effect in 14 states.[25] The authors posited that abortion bans would have an impact on the birthrate eight months after they took effect. They found that compared to the years from 2012 to 2021, there was 1.7% increase in the fertility rate in those states that enacted either an abortion ban or a heartbeat act. This finding easily achieved conventional standards of statistical significance. The authors calculated that since 2022, 22,180 additional births have occurred in states with heartbeat acts and abortion bans.

In a June 2024 article that appeared in the Journal of Public Economics, Dench et al. analyzed state birth data to measure the impact of state abortion bans. They compare the 13 states that effectively banned abortion[26] to 24 states that had not enacted significant abortion restrictions since Dobbs and were unlikely to do so.[27] The authors also excluded 13 other states.[28] Some of these excluded states did not ban abortion but had a gestational limit in place. Other excluded states did not have an abortion ban in place but were actively attempting to ban abortion or were deemed hostile to abortion and were at risk of enforcing an abortion ban.

The authors posited that post-Dobbs abortion bans would start to have an impact on births starting in January 2023. As such, they analyzed January to June monthly birthrate data for every year from 2019 to 2023. They found that in states that banned abortion, the birthrate increased by 2.3% in comparison to the average birthrate from 2019 to 2022.  The authors found more significant birthrate increases in states like Louisiana and Texas that were large distances from other states where abortion was legal. Overall, the authors found that in the first six months of 2023, pro-life laws were correlated with an increase of approximately 32,000 births.

In an article published in Economic Inquiry in March 2026, Springer used a very similar methodology to Dench et al. (2024). Springer compared birth trends in the 13 states with abortion bans to birth trends in the 24 where abortion was legal, and also excluded the same 13 states that Dench et al. excluded. However, an important difference between the Springer study and the Dench et al. study is that Springer analyzed a larger dataset of state-level birth data. Springer analyzed monthly birth data for the entire year whereas Dench et al. limited their analysis to the first six months of the calendar year. Additionally, Springer’s birth dataset started in 2017 whereas the dataset used by Dench et al. began in 2019. Overall, Springer’s analysis of birth data found that newly enacted pro-life laws were correlated with an increase of 14,519 births in 2023.

This is a smaller estimate of births than those provided by Dench et al. and Bell et al. However, there are a couple of reasons why Springer’s birth increase estimate is smaller than the other two studies. First, Springer’s analysis, unlike Dench et al.’s, considers birth data from the last six months of 2023. Springer finds that pro-life laws had smaller impact on birthrates in the later months than in the earlier months of 2023. This is likely because telehealth abortions became more common in the latter part of 2023. Also, when the Texas abortion ban took effect, the Texas Heartbeat Act was already in effect. This might have reduced the impact of the Texas abortion ban on the Texas birthrate.

Finally, Springer’s dataset included monthly birth data for the years 2017 and 2018. These years had higher fertility rates than the other years analyzed.[29]  This may have made the relative birthrate increases in pro-life states appear less substantial. That said, the Springer study also contributes evidential support to the claim that newly enacted pro-life laws are correlated with increases in state birthrates.

Table 2 – Studies of Recently Enacted Pro-Life Laws

Study	States Analyzed	Timeframe	Impact
Dench et al. 2024	13 abortion ban states vs. 25 states where abortion was legal	Jan. to June 2019 – 2023	32,000 additional births in the first 6 months of 2023
Springer 2026	13 abortion ban states vs. 25 states where abortion was legal	2017 – 2023	14,519 additional births in 2023
Bell at al. 2025	All 50 states	2012 – 2023	22,000 more births in states with abortion bans and heartbeat acts

 

Conclusion

Since the Dobbs decision, a number of states have enacted strong pro-life laws that have protected preborn children. Multiple analyses of state-level birth data convincingly demonstrate that these pro-life laws are correlated with increases in state birth rates.

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[1] The New York Times “Tracking Abortion Laws Throughout the Country.”

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/abortion-laws-roe-v-wade.html (Accessed June 19, 2026).

[2] See “Week 3 to 4,” Charlotte Lozier Institute: The Voyage of Life. https://lozierinstitute.org/fetal-development/week-3-to-4/, noting that Post-Conception Week 4 is equivalent to Gestational Week 6, which is approximately 6 weeks after the woman’s last normal menstrual period.

[3] The New York Times “Tracking Abortion Laws Throughout the Country.”

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/abortion-laws-roe-v-wade.html (Accessed June 19, 2026).

[4] Maddow-Zimet, Isaac and Kimya Forouzan.  “Full-Year 2025 Estimates Show Overall Stability in Abortion Incidence, Decreased Travel and Increased Telehealth Provision” Guttmacher Institute. https://www.guttmacher.org/report/full-year-estimates-show-overall-stability-abortion-incidence-decreased-travel-increased-telehealth-provision (Accessed June 20, 2026).

[5] #WeCount Report. The Society of Family Planning https://societyfp.org/research/wecount/wecount-december-2025-data/ (Accessed June 20, 2026).

[6] #WeCount Report. The Society of Family Planning https://societyfp.org/research/wecount/wecount-december-2025-data/ (Accessed June 20, 2026).

[7] Maddow-Zimet, Isaac and Kimya Forouzan.  “Full-Year 2025 Estimates Show Overall Stability in Abortion Incidence, Decreased Travel and Increased Telehealth Provision” Guttmacher Institute. https://www.guttmacher.org/report/full-year-estimates-show-overall-stability-abortion-incidence-decreased-travel-increased-telehealth-provision (Accessed June 23, 2026).

[8] CDC data indicates approximately 80% of abortions take place within the first nine weeks of gestation and 83% of live births occur between 37 and 40 weeks of pregnancy. That means pro-life laws start to have a significant impact on births about 28-31 weeks after their enactment, which is approximately seven months.

[9] New, Michael. November 2022. Texas’s Gain: The Lifesaving Impact of the Texas Heartbeat Act.” Lozier Institute On Point Issue 90. https://lozierinstitute.org/texas-gain-the-lifesaving-impact-of-the-texas-heartbeat-act/ (Accessed June 20, 2026).

[10] Bell SO et al. Texas’ 2021 Ban on Abortion in Early Pregnancy and Changes in Live Births.  Journal of the American Medical Association. 330(3). https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2806878 (Accessed June 21, 2026).

[11] The University of Houston Institute for Research on Women, Gender, and Sexuality.  Texas & Harris County Reproductive Health Update 2022 Fertility Rates, post 2021 Six-Week Abortion Ban. Briefing 2401. January 2024.  https://www.uh.edu/class/ws/irwgs/_docs/2024/56999-ws-abortion-ban-report-v5.pdf (Accessed June 21, 2026).

[12] Dench D et al., The Effect of Post-Dobbs Abortion Bans on Fertility. Journal of Public Economics 2024; 234.  https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0047272724000604?via%3Dihub (Accessed June 21, 2026).

[13] Bell SO et al., U.S. Abortion Bans and Fertility.  Journal of the American Medical Association. 2025; 333(15): 1315-1323. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2830297 (Accessed June 20, 2026).

[14] Springer L. Downstream Effects of Post-Dobbs Abortion Bans: Birth Rates and WIC. Economic Inquiry. 2026; 1-14.  https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ecin.70053 (Accessed June 21, 2026).

[15] Texas Legislature Online. https://capitol.texas.gov/BillLookup/History.aspx?LegSess=87R&Bill=SB8 (October 27, 2022).

[16] Texas Legislature Online. https://capitol.texas.gov/BillLookup/History.aspx?LegSess=87R&Bill=SB8 (October 27, 2022).

[17] Barret D and Marimow AE. “Justice Department Sues Texas To Block Six-Week Abortion Ban.” The Washington Post, September 10, 2021. https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/courts_law/texas-abortion-justice-lawsuit/2021/09/09/5d3eae0a-117a-11ec-9cb6-bf9351a25799_story.html (October 27, 2022).

[18] The law was blocked the evening of Oct. 6, 2021 and went back into effect the evening of Oct. 8, 2021.

[19] New, Michael.  November 2022.  Texas’s Gain: The Lifesaving Impact of the Texas Heartbeat Act.” Lozier Institute On Point Issue 90. https://lozierinstitute.org/texas-gain-the-lifesaving-impact-of-the-texas-heartbeat-act/ (Accessed June 20, 2026).

[20] 9799/9 = 1088.77 (Calculation by author).

[21] The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that in 2022 there were 6,303,323 women of childbearing age (age 15-44) in Texas. (1.24/1,000)*(6,303,323) = 7816.12 (Calculation by author).

[22] 7816/10 = 781.6 (Calculation by author).

[23] The New York Times “Tracking Abortion Laws Throughout the Country.”

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/us/abortion-laws-roe-v-wade.html (Accessed June 19, 2026).

[24] Ibid.

[25] AL, AR, GA, ID, KY, LA, MS, MO, OK, SD, TN, WV, WI

[26] AL, AR, ID, KY, LA, MS, MO, OK, SD, TN, TX, WI, WV

[27] AK, CA, CO, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, KS, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, MT, NV, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OR, RI, VT, VA, WA

[28] AZ, FL, GA, IN, IA, NE, NC, ND, OH, PA, SC, UT, WY

[29] CDC Wonder reports that the U.S. fertility rate was 60.28 in 2017 and 59.09 in 2018. The fertility rate was lower than 59.09 for every year between 2019 and 2023.

LifeNews.com Note: Dr. Michael New is a professor at Ave Maria University. He is a former political science professor at the University of Michigan–Dearborn and holds a Ph.D. from Stanford University. He is a fellow at Witherspoon Institute in Princeton, New Jersey.