November of 2024 saw tens of millions of Americans unite to send President Donald Trump back to the White House, flanked by a Republican-controlled Senate and House of Representatives. But the Novembers of 2025 and 2026 are likely to see the nation’s political divisions on full display in both off-year elections and the looming midterms.
While New York City seems poised to elect a socialist Muslim to the office of mayor, the state of New York may side with a Republican in the governor’s race next year. According to the Manhattan Institute, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is statistically tied in a hypothetical 2026 gubernatorial race against incumbent Governor Kathy Hochul (D), although the Republican maintains a slight advantage at 43% against Hochul’s 42%. When paired up against Hochul’s deputy, Lieutenant Governor Antonio Delgado (D), Stefanik’s lead increases considerably, 43% to Delgado’s 37%.
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Stefanik’s spokeswoman Bernadette Breslin touted the poll’s results in a press release this week, saying, “This marks the first time in decades that any potential Republican gubernatorial candidate (and in this case, the likely nominee) is polling ahead of a Democrat incumbent Governor, even before any official announcement.” Breslin continued, “Kathy Hochul and single party Democrat rule have failed New York[,] making it the most unaffordable state in the country with the highest taxes, energy, utility, rent, and grocery bills [—] making it unaffordable to raise a family, work, and start a business.” The Stefanik spokeswoman added, “New Yorkers of all political parties are hungry for new commonsense leadership after decades of Hochul’s failed single party Democrat rule. Elise Stefanik and the people of New York can and will win this righteous fight to Save New York.”
In comments to The Washington Stand, FRC Action Director Matt Carpenter cautioned, “Polling this far out from 2026 is interesting but needs to be taken with a grain of salt. While it’s true in recent cycles we’ve seen New York move to the right, and Governor Hochul has remained unpopular for most of her term, New York is still a difficult state for any Republican.” He continued, “A year is a long time for a campaign. A lot can — and will — happen between now and then. Lee Zeldin came as close as any Republican to winning the Governor’s race in New York — certainly in my lifetime — so Stefanik, or whomever is the GOP nominee, must know they have a shot.”
The “blue wall” may crack much sooner in the neighboring Garden State, where a Republican is within striking distance of the governorship. According to an Emerson Polling survey published this week, Republican gubernatorial candidate Jack Ciattarelli is statistically tied with Democrat Mikie Sherrill. Ciattarelli is polling at 48% support and Sherrill at 49%, with only two percent of voters undecided. However, Emerson Polling noted that the undecided two percent lean toward Sherrill when pressed, pushing her to 50% support and leaving Ciattarelli just shy of 49%. Ciattarelli was the Republican gubernatorial nominee in 2021, when he significantly outperformed polling expectations, although he still lost to Democrat Chris Murphy by less than four percentage points.
“New Jersey has a history of electing governors from the opposition party once their incumbent governor is term-limited. It remains to be seen if Democrat Mikie Sherrill can buck this trend and follow Democrat Governor Phil Murphy,” Carpenter observed. “There is no doubt: of the two gubernatorial elections this year, the one in New Jersey is the closest. Republican Jack Ciattarelli almost defeated incumbent Democrat Governor Phil Murphy in 2021, running way stronger than anyone or the polling suggested, and he seems to be running a strong campaign this time around as well.”
In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger is leading her Republican gubernatorial opponent, incumbent Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears, by 10 points (51% to 41%), according to the latest numbers from Roanoke College’s Institute for Policy and Opinion Research. Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor Ghazala Hashmi holds a narrower two-point lead over Republican John Reid (42% to 40%), but incumbent Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares is leading Democratic challenger Jay Jones by nearly 10 points (46% to 38%), following the publication of text messages Jones sent a colleague in the House of Delegates in 2022 discussing killing then-Speaker of the House Todd Gilbert I and wishing his children would be shot and killed.
“If those guys die before me I will go to their funerals to piss on their graves,” Jones texted of Gilbert and other Republicans. “Three people, two bullets,” he continued, claiming that no matter who the other two figures were in the scenario, if Gilbert were an option, then “Gilbert gets two bullets to the head. … Spoiler: put Gilbert in the crew with the two worst people you know and he receives both bullets every time.” The Democratic nominee for attorney general also suggested that Gilbert and his wife should have to watch their children be shot and killed due to the Republican’s position on Second Amendment rights. When Republican Delegate Carrie Coyne, who Jones was texting, questioned the Democrat on his comments, he doubled down. “I mean do I think Todd and Jennifer are evil? And that they’re breeding little fascists? Yes.”
The vast majority (80%) of Virginia voters reported to Roanoke College that they were familiar with Jones’s text message scandal. Early voting has been ongoing in Virginia since September 19, but 87% of those polled who already voted for Jones said that they would have voted for him anyway, despite the violent rhetoric of his text messages, which were published in early October. Only one percent said that they would have changed their vote.
“Virginia also has a historical pattern at the gubernatorial level: they tend to vote for governors from the opposite party of whomever won the presidential election in the previous year,” Carpenter noted. “This trend has been upset in past cycles, as the state has trended bluer since 2013,” he added. “But the Democratic ticket certainly took a hit once Jay Jones’s vile text messages came to light, and no other candidate running on the Democratic ticket called for him to drop out. There is a real chance Republican Attorney General Jason Miyares defeats Jones on Tuesday.”
LifeNews Note: S.A. McCarthy serves as a news writer at The Washington Stand.
