More immigrants left the United States than those who entered the country in 2025 — a stunning turn not seen “in at least a half a century,” according to a new estimate from economists.
A report published this week by the Brookings Institution said, “There was a significant drop-off in entries to the United States in 2025 relative to 2024 and an increase in enforcement activity leading to removals and voluntary departures.”
The economists didn’t mince words about the bottom line. “We estimate that net migration was between –10,000 and –295,000 in 2025, the first time in at least half a century it has been negative,” the report said. “In our assessment, net migration is likely to be very low or negative in 2026 as well.”
And they warned there’s an economic bill coming due: “Reduced migration will dampen growth in the labor force, consumer spending, and gross domestic product (GDP). We estimate the sustainable pace of monthly job growth to be between 20,000 and 50,000 in late 2025 and believe it could be negative in 2026,” the report added.
Here’s the twist: Brookings argues the biggest driver wasn’t the dramatic visuals of deportations — it was the pipeline slowing down. “Though deportations and other exits receive more media attention, a slowdown in new arrivals, especially via humanitarian parole and refugee programs and across the Southwest border, has a bigger effect on reducing migration flows in 2025.”
The report says the policy shift has been sweeping: “The first year of the second Trump administration has seen dramatic changes in immigration policy, resulting in a sharp slowdown in net migration to the United States,” Brookings wrote. “We expect the pattern of restrictive policy and increased enforcement to continue or intensify through the coming year.”
By contrast, the Washington Post reported that during the Biden administration there was a surge in immigration, with 2 to 3 million people arriving in the U.S. each year.
But even now, the number is still a fight among the scorekeepers. Brookings acknowledged the dispute outright: “Our estimate of net migration of –295,000 to –10,000 for 2025 differs from some other prominent estimates. The most recent version of the Congressional Budget Office demographic estimates, released in January 2026, suggests net migration of around +400,000 for 2025,” the report said, pointing to different assumptions about deportations and “voluntary out-migration.”
One estimate says the tide turned. Another says it didn’t. Either way, the immigration era of “infinite inflow” is suddenly looking a lot less infinite.
More over at Fox News:
US sees net negative migration for first time in decades amid Trump admin enforcement, economists sayhttps://t.co/LQrl4HgyRC
— Karoline Leavitt (@PressSec) January 14, 2026
